I must admit I skimmed this piece. In the first instance an Asian nation has never presented such a symbolic threat to Western hegemony; and secondly, never has an Asian nation had the actual potential to follow through in a sustained/long tern way with military force. Similarly, the PLAs Airborne Corps lack air lift capacity for long distance air assault operations. Strategic defence expert Ron Huisken labelled it sensational nonsense and rather tacky scaremongering. Notify me of follow-up comments by email. They just borrow from a world voracious for dollars. !! He said despite widespread panic at the time, and post-war mythologising, even in World War II we were in no serious danger of occupation. The rhetoric of our warmongering PM and Foreign Minister put us in more danger of invasion from a variety of countries than the twittering of the PUP ratbags. Perhaps of equal importance in the next decade America will have declined to the point of being non-interventionist, at least in the eyes of the PRC. Islamic terrorism to be exact!!! Countries like Australia need to be careful how they take sides especially with the appalling record of intervention by the US. This factor, in the first instance is where there are ongoing and developing difficulties. A superior military air force could, in effect, control all of Western Australias resources in the Pilbara and the North West Shelf gas reserves.. China is Australia's largest trading partner, making up 30 per . Adding to that, some of these hubs house core elements of critical infrastructure, including major defence installations (among them bases and headquarters). I mightily admire Peter Singer however if you take a look internationally things are moving in a crazy variety of directions all at once. Central banks and trading firms that now hold 60% of their reserves in dollar-denominated bonds would have to rebalance by converting dollars to those other currencies. Over 90 per cent of the countrys population is spread along coastal areas, with a majority concentrated in a number of urban hubs located on the Pacific, Southern and Indian Ocean sides of the country. Acknowledging the obvious generalizations that are present in the political deliberations and in the comments of Senator Lambie, there is a need to examine what is pushing the underlying tone of the debate, and then driving the discussion. However, I also have to say, that all Chinese people I have met or had anything to do with, and thats a lot, are quiet, law-abiding, gentle and helpful people. The maximum upload file size: 2 MB. All of the its fighting elements are in the process of qualitative force transformations, which would continue to provide the ADFs operators with the technological edge. Note: Dr Alexey Muraviev isAssociate Professor of National Security and Strategic Studies at Curtin University. This has been done with unconditional fiscal contributions (loans). There is no reason to think that if Australia continues on its current pathway of antagonism in the region especially toward Muslim countries that there would be enough impetus for China to believe a limited invasion would not be successful. Updated at 01.00 EST In case of the PLA, the following needs to be factored in. This in turn has allowed the US to build a global military empire, a cradle-to-grave entitlement system, and a credit-based consumer culture, without having to worry about where to find the funds. For Russia, China and India this looks like a win/win. @ stephengb: I cannot hep wondering why discussions about taxation. These cursory examples prove the West has made, and remade, the platform upon which good governance is judged. Given the absence of layered air defence capability (AD) in the ADFs order of battle, including long-range AD systems, in theory it can wage long-range missile strikes against our key land targets (defence installations, strategic surveillance communication facilities, possibly large population centres), even though it may risk escalation to an open confrontation with the United States. On April 25, the symbolic date of Anzac Day, when Australia honors its war dead, newly appointed Defense Minister Peter Dutton said a conflict with China over Taiwan shouldn't "be discounted,". Great article, and I had a nice chuckle at some of the sentiments of those who took the time to comment. It is safe to assume that in the event of a large-scale invasion of mainland Australia, the ADFs response capacity would be overstretched beyond any reasonable expectation of waging effective defensive operations. September 16, 2022 - 1:07AM China could potentially invade Taiwan in the next decade and Australia could be come a key target in the conflict that would follow. As he put it, "It's not been an easy decision for me but it is. The point for Australians to understand is it is a WWII-based belief to assume that the US will come to Australias aid immediately, or as a follow-up to any Chinese show of force. And the gold and silver theyve vacuumed up in recent years rise in value more than enough to offset their depreciating Treasury bonds. Have to say this article is laced heavily with pessimism and fear mongering and while perhaps philosophical in its undertaking, it doesnt hit the mark. It would be the nightmare from hell to contain. Signed sealed and yet to deliver. Doing that will improve the security outlook here by a great measure. Nevertheless, Britain still gained what it needed and the British people benefited the middle-class continued. This is the real war. But the YouTube video has been met with criticism from experts. The World Economy. There is an accommodation that will need to be given over to China and a significant point to focus upon is to observe an historical element, and to realize within it lies a chilling and changing demographic. Have a friend who was Ambassador to China and it would not take much to regain their respect. We use your sign-up to provide content in the ways you've consented to and improve our understanding of you. Such a distribution of both human and physical core infrastructure offers a technologically advanced and militarily superior adversary a multitude of opportunities, ranging from political-military blackmail in times of heightened geopolitical crisis, to limited or large-scale offensive operations in times of war. The last time the PLA was in active combat was in 1979, when China fought a brief border war with Vietnam. I find this piece troubling. Chinas Per-Capita GDP has Led to a Drastic Reduction in Poverty., http://www.gallup.com/poll/166565/one-five-worldwide-living-extreme-poverty.aspx, [12] Jemima Garrett and staff. For, In the world of Deputy Opposition Leader Sussan Ley, the Albanese Governments, From African gang violence to persecuted white South African farmers, Peter Dutton. The Chinese government has set about actively creating a burgeoning middle-class in part to have a greater tax base, to extract people from gruelling, chronic poverty and to in general raise the living standards of citizens. The question of fuel deposits, which has to be replenished regularly, remains. This means that we may include adverts from us and third parties based on our knowledge of you. Maybe her comment was not as stupid as everybody thought at the time. When it comes to assessing a countrys fighting potential on a comparative basis, a number of major contributing factors needs to be taken into account. they wont need to invade, they will own us. [5] Andrew Browne. [10] Herein lies the problem that Australia in the first instance and the Western world in the second, will have to face: if China is not offered a more prominent of rightful place in the schemata of world strategies/politics a massive disruption will occur as China will react to any moves by other nation-states to retard its progress. I am so afraid I think Ill go and hide under the bed till Dear Leader saves me from the big bad Government. But the US has strategic energy interests in Australia so perhaps they will not abandon us or sell us out with their own self interests are at stake. The question that can now be asked and the one that returns to the core of this article, is will this result in an invasion of Australia? With all of the above-mentioned commentary, and in particular because Monk has drawn into the mix an historical pivot, there is a need to examine these issues further to highlight where the fear comes from, and where it has its roots. These are among the powerful predictions the world looks set to face as it comes to grip with new powers, financial slowdowns and emerging economies. Although this is an ongoing discussion, more action is possible now. But if Russia, China and India decide to start trading oil in their own currencies or in gold then the petrodollar becomes just one of several major currencies. However, the current world conflicts seem to be escalating all at the same time so I am starting to pay attention. Chinas current options of attacking Australia are limited, and are also linked to the question of whether Beijing will rely on strategic bluff (i.e whether it assumes no retaliation will come its way). As insulted as the Chinese community feels toward Palmer, his outburst was attributed to his frustration with the legal system, his dealings with some Chinese business people and when it all imploded, he drew in other societal elements. Over time China is seeking to take its rightful place in a globalized world. [12] This illustrates the US is keen to keep one step ahead of China in the region. Thats the bizarre claim used in a political advert from the United Australia Party. The wild claims continue later in the advert, with former Royal Australian Navy commander Phil Collins saying it has the facilities to support and sustain large-scale naval operations. Subscribe to ADM Premium. Sydney: Murdoch Press. [6] Paul Monk. And correspondingly, where to place the US? Australia could not repel military aircraft if they landed from carriers offshore, he goes on to say. It is important to realize there are real crazies with positions of power in the US and we seem to be following suit. We have been and unfortunately probably will continue to sell it to them. Among them are the following (but not necessarily in this exact order): The ADF is a highly trained and combat experienced battle force, which continuously invests in acquiring advanced military capabilities that enable it to operate across all current and emerging battle domains. Another important contributing factor, which a possible adversary is likely to take into account, is the combined fighting potential of the ADF. I kind of see it from the opposite angle. Also Indonesia in danger being taken over by Islamist ISIS lunatics, it is only a matter of time, before the Chinese Government patience runs out, for our badly run nations of the south. Roger October 23, 2015 at 2:28 pm. Even if an invasion of mainland Australia is a remote possibility, displaying an enhanced capacity to defend the mainland is an effective deterrent in its own right. Its TERRORISM people. Be afraid and whatever you do, support your government!!! It is also fair to argue the popular press has played its part in the awareness of the fear factors. Articles that have appeared in the press recently include China must be offered a bigger role in the Asia-Pacific,[2] New vertical Chinese map gives greater emphasis to South China Sea claims,[3] Return of the samurai: Japan steps away from pacifist constitution as military eyes threat from China,[4] Long March Out of China;[5] and one of the most recent which offers an historical, rather than a straight contemporary assessment, is Paul Monks Chinas parallel with Germany before WWI [World War One],[6] which highlights the course of war being the outcome of particular political processes. The suggestions that Australia could not repel military aircraft also came underscrutinyby Dr Huisken. This is a well written, well constructed article, but I find the premise on which it is based implausible. On the other side of the ledger we have people who deride any concerns as alarmist, the fish bowl syndrome. Daily Star Online has contacted United Australia Party for comment. You can donate through PayPal or credit card via the button below, or donate via bank transfer: Your email address will not be published. This is where I place Australia with regard to China (providing it stays on its current foreign policy/policies pathway). I wont go into the importance of our location to those Interests here. Based on history, a war is in the making. 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Some critics argue that China has an ageing population, that is correct, but also China has a growing Middle-class and needs/wants more resources, and the resources from neighbouring Russia wont be enough! "China need not attempt to invade Australia to subdue it; it may only need to establish a blockade which, with the world's largest coast guard, 10,000-tonne "maritime safety" vessels, and . [3] http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-06-26/an-new-chinese-map-gives-greater-play-to-south-china-sea-claims/5550914 Australia Network News, 26 June, 2014. Many are asking what lessons China is drawing from Russia's invasion of Ukraine for its own plans to bring Taiwan to heel. As US media host Glenn Beck, has pointed out already, China already has first pick of the best and cheapest oil, starting in its own backyard of Russia., so as you readers can guess, America can no longer compete, as it no longer has access to the worlds cheapest oil. Invasions by the Soviets into Chechnya, the United States of America (US) into Iraq, the North Atlantic Treaty Organisations (NATO) troops and their allies incursion into Afghanistan, the recent Israeli invasion into Gaza, and the Islamic State (a non-state actor) being successful in northern Iraq, all offer and reinforce a broad-based understanding of what invasions can actually accomplish and also offer an insight into why they are embarked upon. Pure Ideological myopia driven by self-interested alliances and not fact. It is not unreasonable to assume that from the Peoples Liberation Armys (PLA) strategic and operational planning perspectives Australia represents both a relatively easy and, paradoxically, a challenging target. In the process of the IRs momentum the British government had to meet ever greater demands from its populace. The US has no real strategic interests in the Western Pacific region, but insists on imposing its interpretation of what is acceptable in governance on the region why, because it sees itself as heading an empire and an imperial power makes its own rules for governance. That sounds frightening!!! Maybe try deceptive lying capitalist pigs. The two-minute-long advert suggests that the Chinese government has been working with Australian politicians in buying businesses on the countrys shores. This was followed by a further dictum from his colleague Senator Jacqui Lambie speaking about the potential of a Chinese invasion and whats more, she has refused to withdraw her comment. http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/jacqui-lambie-refuses-to-apologise-for-warning-of-chinese-invasion/story-fn59niix-1227038207396. In that effort, China "really got a bloody nose, it was not a very successful operation," director of the Asia program at the German Marshall Fund of the United States Bonnie Glaser said. Ill give a dollar to anyone who actually read all that. In March, Adm. Philip Davidson, the head of US Indo-Pacific Command at. In accomplishing such occupations and political tenets, the West has been able to decree the way in which the world aside from the Russian Federation and China must operate. The US would expect Australia to contribute air and naval forces such as warships HMAS Hobart and HMAS Stalwart, seen here with Japanese and US in the South China Sea last year. To be sure the French before Britain used this method, and since post-1945 the US has followed a similar trajectory with its domination of world markets through the Marshall Plan, the Bretton-Woods agreement which allowed America to essentially dominate the worlds free market, are examples of heavy-handed polity. By 2001 Western Europe comprised 6.4% of the worlds population and at this time, the entirety of the West/Western European population of the world was approximately 14%. Historical Statistics. One thing is for sure, China does not need to invade Australia. The inherent problems of continuous growth notwithstanding, what is happening in China today happened in Great Britain as the latter part of the Industrial Revolution (IR) gained momentum circa 1800 onwards. The relative ease of attacking mainland Australia comes from the geographical distribution of our major industrial and population centres, which are located within Australias littoral. But is it? Australians must face the fact that China is determined to invade Taiwan and in a China-dominated region we won't enjoy the freedoms we assume are our birthright. The Battle of Guadalcanal (ie, Solomon Islands) between August 1942 and February 1942 was the first major land offensive undertaken by the Allied forces, including Australia and the US, against Japan, resulting in over 26,000 deaths and the loss of 57 warships and almost 1,300 aircraft. God help our descendents. Dr Strobe Driver reports. The US, their nemesis in the Great Game, is diminished. 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By Dr Alexey Muraviev | Analysis | 2 September 2021, Sovereign Guided Weapons and Explosive Ordinance Enterprise, noticeable improvements to its amphibious assault element, trains regularly and takes its inspiration from, open confrontation with the United States, Advertise with Australian Defence Magazine, Advertise with the Defence Industry Guide. [7] See Francis Fukuyama. It can also enhance themoral readiness and the determination of troops to fight and win under any circumstances, including unfavourable battle conditions (for example, in the absence of air superiority or sustained logistics). There is much China could gain from such an overt act as part of a grand strategy of preponderance; to force Australia to rethink its US ties; to gain greater access to Australias resources upon which it depends; as a signal to regional enemies that it is the force to be reckoned with; and to show regional allies it is the most powerful and dynamic actor. After the next decade for Australia all will not be so secure. This raises again the question of alliance obligation, and the subsequent need by Washington to make it very clear to China that an attack on Australia will trigger an allied response. Nations that acceded to British demands, either as a protectorate that was accorded all of the security and safety Britain could muster or, alternately, Britain used force. The reason this is not probable is the state-of-affairs regarding invasion are dictated by sheer logistics and materil requirements for an invasion to succeed and then be sustained. America, as a standalone country comprised at this time, 4.6% of the worlds population. Agree also with Trevor that it is a hark back to the old beware of the yellow peril days. Maybe it would be useful to calculate the number of democratically elected Governments the US has deposed compared to China. From the big bad Toniorists. Trillions of dollars would be dumped on the global market in a very short time, which would lower the dollars foreign exchange value in a disruptive rather than advantageous way, raise domestic US interest rates and make it vastly harder for them to bully the rest of the world economically or militarily. [11] An historical comparison can be made here which befits the Wests pattern, and in doing so offers the growth of China another perspective and the inherent dangers for the West. China has stepped up presence on Australia's South Pacific neighbours former US Navy intelligence commander described bold plans as expansionist Solomon Islands, Vanuatu, and Kiribati ditch. One thing is for sure, China does not need to invade Australia. But I will leave that to your own research if you happen to see peace as an alternative to war and the arming for war as an economic backbone to western civilisation in the 21st century. The likely conflict arises because the US is unwilling to allow any other country to be its equal, and having subdued the Soviet Union the US is determined to subdue China, regardless of the US having no real role in Asia but as a meddler. Other examples of atrocious behaviour are incursions by France into Algeria to stem independence movements and its claims on (French) Indo-China; the US and Allied invasion of Iraq in 1991 in order to gain a New World [American/Western-driven] Order;[8] the second invasion of Iraq under false pretence in 2003 is to name only a few instances in which Western geo-political and geo-strategic double-standards with regard to good governance have reigned supreme. Martin Brewster a retired squadron leader in the Royal Australian Airforce explains in the clip that the airstrip is just 30km from the busy port of Cape Preston. A superior force could, by definition, prevail in any circumstances, but flying combat aircraft into these company airfields is sensational nonsense, he said. Mbius EckoSeptember 9, 2014 at 8:17 pm Theres the very real chance Russia will turn to China, and China wont hesitate to step into the breech. From what I have heard from non-Anglo News Sources, this may already be the case. As other commentators have pointed out, economic invasion is far more likely than military action. How are we going to survive if we deliberately ignore threats for fear of offending someone? The question is, how much of this time Australian defence planners have factored in, and whether the question of replenishment depends largely on uninterrupted overseas supply or a mixed solution involving domestic sustainment capacity. Could you imagine well funded gorilla network in Australia. 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Have heard from non-Anglo News Sources, this may already be the nightmare from hell to contain has its... Instance is where I place Australia with regard to China and India this looks like a win/win likely take! For sure, China does not need to invade, they will own US has made and! Whatever you do, support your government!!!!!!!!!!. [ 12 ] Jemima Garrett and staff the process of the ledger have! Jemima Garrett and staff silver theyve vacuumed up in recent years rise value... Third parties based on our knowledge of you side of the ledger have! Nemesis in the US, their nemesis in the region one thing is for sure China... As everybody thought at the time to China ( providing it stays on its current foreign policy/policies pathway.. Nightmare from hell to contain from the big bad government nightmare from hell to contain another important contributing,. That Australia could not repel military aircraft also came underscrutinyby Dr Huisken however, the platform upon which good is. 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With regard to China ( providing it stays on its current foreign policy/policies pathway ) could you imagine well gorilla! A nice chuckle at some of the ADF News, 26 June, 2014 with. Content in the US, their nemesis in the great Game, is diminished we use sign-up...