His strong and consistent 3-year-old form, combined with a lack of depth among the prospective contenders, makes this logical. University of Louisville Equine Industry Program - Get a Career in Horse Racing! They keep stressing do what's right for the horse. Not only is Epicenter the lone horse in the race to run a number above 100, which is what it likely will take to win this race, but he has run three straight races with a 98 or higher Beyer. Messier posted his on Feb. 6, 2022 in the Robert B. Lewis (G3), a 1 1/16 mile run which Messier won. In 2017 Beyer was given the racing industrys highest honor, the Eclipse Award of Merit, for his lifetime achievements. They employ their judgment in analyzing any racing card and determining the track variant. A look at the top Kentucky Derby contenders for the 2022 race heading into the March prep schedule, with Baffert still banned and new leaders in the points rankings. The lone outright winner to run under a 100 came in 2014 (California Chrome, 97). By comparison, American Pharoah earned Beyers of 105 for his wins in the Arkansas Derby and the Kentucky Derby. Three-year-old horses are expected to improve at this point in their careers, but this is also the first time any of them will run 1 1/4 mile. Overall, the 2022 Kentucky Derby field looks generally faster than the 2021 field. He lost $5 to his dad and got back into sports betting years later during a 15-year run in the poker industry. 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational Bets: Final PGA TOUR Thoughts, Betting Card. USA: After drawing comparisons with the legendary Secretariat for his extraordinary 19-length romp in Saturday's Pacific Classic at Del Mar, Flightline has been awarded a Beyer speed figure of 126 - the second-highest in 31 years. margin: 3px; MLB Odds: Will Twins Break Out Of Two-Year Slump? After the New York Times gave the book an unexpected rave review, Picking Winners attracted a wide audience. Reach for the superlatives: Flightline and jockey Flavien Prat after a truly astonishing performance in the Pacific Classic. font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; Using this information to contravene any law or statute is prohibited. The top Beyer Speed Figure earned by a Kentucky Derby Sportsbook since 1987 is 118, shared by Summer Squall (1990), Silver Charm (1997) and Smarty Jones (2004). Speightstown took some time as a racehorse to come around, winning champion sprinter honors as a 6-year-old, and many of his best runners have improved significantly with age: Tamarkuz won the Breeders Cup Dirt Mile at 6; Haynesfield won the Jockey Club Gold Cup at 4; and Flagstaff became a Grade 1 winner at age 7. His victory put him at the top of the 2022 Kentucky Derby leaderboard with a total of 64 points. The team that puts out the Beyer speed figure numbers made it official Monday morning. Timeform Ratings go a step further in trying to be both accurate and objective. Below is a closer look at the top Beyer Speed Figure, Brisnet Speed Rating and TimeformUS Speed Figure earned by the 2022 Kentucky Derby contenders. Hes also contributed to Sports Illustrated and Fansided during his young writing career. (Note that this speed figure was assigned before the numbers were published in the Daily Racing Form, so may not be included in some listings of the top speed figures. background-color: #104E8B; In two of that year's Kentucky Derby preps, Destin stopped the timer for the 1 1/16 miles of the Tampa Bay Derby in 1:42.82. (Of course, all horses have distances they prefer, and a sprinter who earns a big figure at six furlongs is unlikely to duplicate it in the Kentucky Derby.) OddsShark horse racing expert Michael Dempsey will be providing his selections and analysis for both the Kentucky Oaks and Kentucky Derby Day cards at turfnsport.com. Signup and get a $200 deposit bonus! Photo: A bay son of Not This Time, Epicenter has seen his Beyer Speed Figures go up in every race of his career, peaking with a . It doesn't lack for storylines either with Kentucky Derby sensation Rich . He also wanted a rating system that could compare horses at different distances and at all racetracks. Breeders Cup Promo - Get Up to $200 Back If Your First Bet Loses, Get Your First Single-Horse Win Wager Back, Register for DFS, receive a free NBA Entry. Video Poker Guide: Play the Best Online Video Poker Games, Tacitus 2019 Kentucky Derby Contender Profile, 2022 Belmont Stakes Odds: We The People Overtakes Mo Donegal On The Oddsboard, 2022 Breeders Cup Predictions: Expert Picks And Best Bets. Medina Spirit posted a 101 Brisnet Speed Rating in last year's Kentucky Derby. NEC Tournament Odds: Merrimack In A One-Horse Race? Beyer explained that rating a horses ability on just the final time of the race was not good enough, because racing surfaces can vary from day to day based on the weather, how the track is maintained and other factors. Danzing Candy won the San Felipe at the same distance in 1:43.04. If speed figures are correct, it could be more of the same in 2022. However, seven horses posted a BSF between 90-94 in the 2022 crop versus five in 2021. Call 1-800-GAMBLER if you have a gambling problem. The Beyer Speed Figure is calculated by looking at the final time and distance of the race, adjusted by the track variant, which is a measure of the inherent speed of the racetrack in question. It is done, and has always been done, by human beingsBeyer and Mark Hopkins, and their six associates. Epicenter is the only other horse in the field to . Barber Road ran in all four of the Derby preps in Arkansas and failed to put forth a figure that makes him competitive in any of those races. 2022 Kentucky Derby Trail: By the Numbers. The 148th running of horse racing's Kentucky Derby will be held Saturday, May 7, 2022, at Churchill Downs in Louisville. 60 Broad St. [citation needed]. Sven Beyer. [9][10][11] Easy Goer ran a 122 in winning the 1989 Belmont Stakes, the best Beyer Speed Figure in any Triple Crown race since these ratings were first published in 1987. In 1991, The Racing Times, an upstart newspaper founded by Steven Crist, put Beyer Speed Figures into print for the first time. Written By Mo Nuwwarah on May 19, 2022 - Last Updated on May 23, 2022. Flightline had already made headlines before his first career start, selling for $1 million at the 2019 Fasig-Tipton Saratoga sale. font-size: 12px; I don't think he has any distance limitations.. Also note that this year's Wood Memorial (G2) and Santa Anita Derby (G1) came back the strongest of the prep races, based on Brisnet Speed Ratings. Kentucky Derby 2022: Who are the fastest contenders. [1], The record for the highest Beyer Speed figure is held by Groovy, the 1987 American Champion Sprint Horse who earned 133 and 132 in back-to-back races,[2] in the Roseben and True North Handicaps at six furlongs in 1987. NEC Tournament Odds: Merrimack In A One-Horse Race? After a weekend of three extremely telling Kentucky Derby prep races, and 50-point races coming quickly, there's no better time to take a look at how the crop has performed figures-wise to this point. So some of the traditional rules may not apply. This implies that Secretariat would have had the highest ever Beyer speed figure. At 1 3/16 miles, its the longest Derby prep race, which is why the market looks extremely bullish on Epicenter. Pedigree: Olympiad is from the 13th crop of 2004 champion sprinter Speightstown, by Gone West. Slew's Tiz Whiz Named Washington's 2022 Horse Of The Year. For the purpose of this particular preview we'll just . Andrew Beyer and his associates answer selected readers questions about Beyer Speed Figures. Daily Racing Form provides the top 25 race horses ranked by earnings. 92. None of the entrants in 2010's field has yet earned a number higher than 101. On 2016s Derby trail, the top number was the 103 earned by Exaggerator in his victory in the Santa Anita Derby. Signup and get a $200 deposit bonus! Subscribe for FREE to the Daily PDF or the News Alerts. ** Get a $150 deposit match from AmWager + Daily Rewards**, Kentucky Derby prep: Gotham Stakes 2023 odds and analysis, Work tab: Cody's Wish drills for 1st time since Breeders' Cup win, Head to Head: Handicapping Fountain of Youth 2023, Romans wins weight battle, now looks to Fountain of Youth, Ky. Derby prep: 1 horse can beat Yakteen 5 in San Felipe. He has produced multiple five-figure days at the track over the years, including a $60,000 Pick 6 at Del Mar in 2014. With a talented, 20-horse field expected to enter the starting gate, you NEED to see what racing insider and Beyer Speed Figure maker Bob Weir has to say before making any 2022 Kentucky Derby picks of your own. Messier, Taiba and Epicenter have run the strongest of the horses in the field. BSFs were created by Andy Beyer and are a system for rating the performance of horses in North America. So a high BSF ceiling is notable, but also consistency is a plus too to battle possible negative regression. This should be taken with a gain of salt, however, because Epicenter has shown the most consistency. Stat to remember: Since the Beyer Speed Figures were introduced in . Chance of rain 100%. One of those came from Olympiad, who punched his ticket to the $6 million Longines Breeders Cup Classic with a win in the $740,000 Stephen Foster Stakes July 2 at Churchill Downs. A 90 at Saratoga is the same quality of performance as a 90 at the Ferndale Fair.Moreover, a figure of 90 in a six-furlong race is the same quality of performance as a 90 at 1 miles. A horse doesnt have to have earned a triple-digit BSF before the Derby to win, but its also difficult to make an enormous leap of 10+ from a career-best in a prep race and win the Derby. Beyer Speed Figures are a great tool. APPLETON - Change can be difficult, but Appleton East guard Sammi Beyer is taking a positive approach to her senior season. We might not have seen the best from Secret Oath and Creative Minister, who have shown they can run competitivefigures while they continue to improve. Sell. I've got a good ownership group. I'm going to be very mindful of his campaign, he said. We expect next year to go a lot different than this year because when you do right by a horse, you build a better product going forward. Please visit gambleaware.co.uk or gamcare.org.uk for guidelines on responsible gaming. Stay up-to-date with the best from America's Best Racing! Remember Ben with a gift to Thoroughbred aftercare, Subscribe for FREE to the Daily PDF or the News Alerts, Home Archive Shared News With A 118 Beyer, Flightline Heads Into 2022. Overall, the number reflects the time of the race and the inherent speed of the track over which it was run. Beyer Speed Figures earned by Messier (103) and Adare Manor (94) in their blowout victories yesterday at Santa Anita were the highest by male and female 3-year-olds, respectively, thus far in 2022. Combining BSFs with other metrics like Brisnet Speed Figures and final furlong times gives us a more complete picture of this field. He has run consecutive 101 numbers, which puts him behind four other Preakness probables. Avg. The average winning Beyer Speed Figure in the Kentucky Derby is 109. Beyer's subsequent books, "My $50,000 Year at the Races" (1978), "The Winning Horseplayer" (1983), and "Beyer on Speed" (1993) continued to raise racing fans' awareness of the importance of speed figures. Trained by Rudy Rodriguez, the gelding led at every call to cover the six furlongs in 1.11.17. The best horses in the U.S. generally earn Beyer Speed Figures between 105 and 115. Once horses have built a figure history, Beyer projects a figure based on the figures earned by the horses in the race, in place of the par, making the numbers much more accurate. Several runners had higher TimeformUS figures for Saturday's races, including Cavalry Charge with a 122 in winning the Fair Grounds Stakes (G3). Low 43F. Winds ESE at 5 to 10 mph. Flightline was given a 118 Beyer figure for his sensational performance in Sunday's GI Runhappy Malibu S. at Santa Anita, which is the top figure assigned to any horse this year. These numbers reflect the relative strength of different racing circuits. The highest official numbers belong to the sprinter Groovy, who earned a 132 and a 133 in 1987. Unlike many of his rivals, he still has room to catch up on speed figures. Early Voting's previous high was only a 91. If their calculations would produce a figure that defies logic (due to a timing error, or a sudden change in the condition of the track, for example) they will assign the race a figure that reflects the true ability of horses in the field. border: 1px solid #CCC; Because multiple horses are in each race, as opposed to two teams (binary) in a sport (or chess, which uses the Elo rating system to make power ratings), the task of adjusting power ratings is much more complex. MLB Odds: Will Twins Break Out Of Two-Year Slump? We knew Olympiad was fast - he set a new track record of 1:42.01 for 1 1/16 miles at Fair Grounds in winning the Mineshaft Stakes in February - but watching him press a fast pace in the Stephen Foster and still finish with a final eighth of a . Photo: Benoit. He was nearly in a walk when crossing the wire after completing the seven furlongs in 1:21.37. [5][6][7] Easy Goer also routinely ran in the 120 Beyer Speed Figure range on a regular basis in his races, while arch-rival Sunday Silence did so rarely and only when it was required for him to prevail. Before you place your wagers on the Derby, you'll want the skinny on the horses. TimeformUS also values the strength of Tim Yakteen's duo. We knew Olympiad was fast - he set a new track record of 1:42.01 for 1 1/16 miles at Fair Grounds in winning the Mineshaft Stakes in February - but watching him press a fast pace in the Stephen Foster and still finish with a final eighth of a . The methodology has stood the test of time, though the availability of computer-generated data has enabled some refinements over the years.The calculation of figures is not a mechanical process. Simplification ran his career-best figure in October, but like Epicenter, he has been a very consistent runner throughout his campaign. The figures are straightforward: the greater the number, the quicker the horse. Call 1-800-GAMBLER if you have a gambling problem. Every race since has been shorter. Only Epicenter and Taiba hit triple digits in their most recent race. [2] Flightline earned a 126 speed figure in winning the 2022 Pacific Classic Stakes at Del Mar Racetrack in 2022. [Related: Kentucky Derby 2022: New scenarios after 3 defections]. In 1992, Beyer began making turf figures, which were made more accurate by his adjustment of the beaten-lengths chart, in which he uses the six-and-a-half furlong beaten-lengths chart for all races at that distance or longer, to reflect the nature of turf racing, where horses jockey for position most of the way, and then sprint home with almost all of their energy in reserve, making the competitive part of the race more akin to a sprint than to the race's actual distance. The system behind the figures was explained in detail and popularized by Andrew Beyers book, Picking Winners, published in 1975. Beyer Speed Figures express the most important factor in handicapping: how fast a horse has run in each of his starts.The winning figure for a race is based on three factors: the final time, the distance, and the inherent speed of the track (a calculation known as the track variant.) Their six associates involved in making figures include television commentator Randy Moss and long-time Philadelphia sports columnist Dick Jerardi, who have been with the business since its beginning. It has sold approximately 200,000 copies, has been translated into Japanese and Korean, and is still in print after 44 years. Below is the best and most recent BSF from each horse in the 2022 Kentucky Derby Field. by ericdecoster February 9, 202211 min read. Another very fast horse who was handled that way was Ghostzapper (Awesome Again). The Malibu was the longest start of his career. In Picking Winners, Beyer claimed a breakthrough when a study of claiming races at Calder Race Course showed Beyer that 1:13 for six furlongs was equally fast to 1:26.1 at seven; from there, Kovitz's math was used to generate perfectly accurate parallel-time and beaten-lengths charts, which Beyer then used to make par times for classes, against which each race is measured to determine if the track is faster or slower than normal. The third and final leg of the horse racing Triple Crown has arrived. Beyer Figures became part of Daily Racing Form past performances in 1992. It's an exciting time. Messier and Taiba recorded a 103, tops on the list. The team that puts out the Beyer speed figure numbers made it official Monday morning. He improved to 5-for-5 this season with a dominant 2 -length victory from just off the pace in the Grade 2 Stephen Foster that resulted in a career-best 123 Equibase Speed Figure and 111 Beyer Speed Figure. ** Get a $150 deposit match from AmWager + Daily Rewards**, Kentucky Derby prep: Gotham Stakes 2023 odds and analysis, Work tab: Cody's Wish drills for 1st time since Breeders' Cup win, Head to Head: Handicapping Fountain of Youth 2023, Romans wins weight battle, now looks to Fountain of Youth, Ky. Derby prep: 1 horse can beat Yakteen 5 in San Felipe, These 19 horses have Saturday's highest speed figures. With Rich Strike and Zandon defecting, it opens the door for the Derby runner-up to dip below 2-1, which is unusually short for a non-Derby winner. She earned an impressive 98 Beyer Speed Figure in that race, the best of any Oaks rival by six points. Beyer said that if his figures were around in 1973, Secretariat would have earned a 139 Beyer for his Belmont Stakes victory. This could have inflated the Beyer Speed Figure earned by a horse in a race. Note that unlike with Brisnet and Beyer, TimeformUS also takes pace into account when formulating its figures. The Win and Youre In Challenge Series offers the winners of specific individual races an expenses-paid starting spot for corresponding Breeders Cup races, and this blog will periodically take a closer look at one promising prospect. Win.Use Promo Code: PLAYBONUS250PLAY NOW. Bet On Flightline (+375) at BetOnline Formal Gold ran successive numbers of 126, 124 and 125 in 1997 in the Whitney Handicap (actually losing by a nose to Will's Way), Iselin Handicap and Woodward Stakes. May 11:Strobe quick early, late in sparkling debut victory, May 25:Pricey Nabokov pays off with 91 Beyer, June 2:Forte shouldimprove with distance, Beyer Slideshow featuring last weekends stakes winners from around the country with Beyer Speed Figures, sire/breeder information and more. The site is not associated with nor is it endorsed by any professional or collegiate league, association or team. Only one horse has recorded a better Beyer speed figure than Flightline's 126 in the Pacific Classic, and none have matched his five-race string of excellence 105, 114, 118, 112, and 126. Prior to the Malibu, Flightline and Baby Yoda (Prospective) were tied for the best number on the year, a 114. It was one point better than the 110 Beyer Speed Figure Life Is Good earned for winning the $3 million Pegasus World Cup in January to rate as the highest figure at more than a mile this year Charge It earned a 111 for winning the Dwyer Stakes at one mile on July 2. . With A 118 Beyer, Flightline Heads Into 2022. Olympiad, with Junior Alvarado in the irons, rolled to a 2 -length victory in the July 2 Stephen Foster Stakes at Churchill Downs, his fifth win in a row to start off 2022. View information about the top race horses and their winnings at DRF.com today. 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